Stars Mean Less
The idea of star power is one of the oldest and most dated ideas in Hollywood. The logic goes that if you put a noteworthy actor or actress in a movie, no matter its quality or genre, the film will make money. It's a holdover from the eighties and nineties when this was definitely the case. For example, no matter what 'movie you made, if Tom Cruise or Will Smith was the star you were going to make money. While some star power is certainly helpful, it's far from a guarantee. Fans will cross check with other movie goers and critics before they decide to shell out money, and even if those stars align you still need a recognized or interesting concept.
This also makes less sense for films where the audience is already a bit niche and more likely to dislike changes to the source material. I know Ghost in the Shell and I wasn't falling over myself when ScarJo was cast. I thought it was a missed opportunity and if anything it killed my interest a bit.
The Global Market is More Important Than Ever
As a movie fan I'm constantly checking the website Box Office Mojo to see how much money movies are making. While most people keep track of the American box office, I'm also incredibly interested in how much movies are making overseas...and it's a lot. It ranges from film to film but anywhere between a quarter to two thirds of a film's overall gross can come from foreign sources. You know that Great Wall movie nobody in America cared about? Yeah well the Chinese box office did because that thing has made over $300 million. Think Logan is a big hit in America? It's made almost twice as much overseas.
What does this mean for movie makers? It means that casting actors from different nations, let's say a well-known Japanese actress as the Major rather than ScarJo, you've endeared yourself to another box office. My go to example is the latest XXX movie. The reviews were middling but Vin Diesel stacked the cast with foreign actors. As a result, it was the highest grossing film in the world for a good chunk of the year.
You'll Take A Media Beating Before the Movie Comes Out
At this point why would you want your $100 million movie to have any major controversy? Unless you're trying to make a point, a tone-deaf move like white-washing means your movie is destined for an endless stream of think piece hate, social media scorn, and possibly diminishing box office returns. It's one thing if you include a gay character in Beauty & The Beast, that's progressive and serves a purpose. But if your lead actress has to go to screening after screening and essentially defend the whitewashing decision that's just asking for trouble.
This is the kind of publicity you simply do not want if you have a big budget movie that needs to win over fans. Sure you can make a turd in the DC universe and it will still make some money, but those are established brands and characters. For the majority of your potential audience, Ghost in the Shell is not a known entity and having a flurry of outrage aimed at your movie isn't going to win people over.
Takeaway: Progressive Casting= Possibly Better Returns and Definitely Better Publicity
While the film's final box office haul remains to be seen, Ghost in the Shell is the perfect example of old Hollywood thinking in the face of an evolving media culture. It's also the perfect way to lose money. Would casting a Japanese actress guarantee this film box office success? Not necessarily, but I can tell you that a number of people would've been more inclined to see it, and the movie's publicity going into its opening weekend would be infinitely more positive.
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